A United Kingdom based research and political risk consultancy firm, Kevin, Charlyn & Kimberly Associates, has predicted that President Goodluck Jonathan would win the March 28 election with a margin of 13 per cent.
This was disclosed in a statement by Mr O.C Vince, the Vice President of the firm for West Africa, who addressed a press conference in Abuja, on Thursday. He explained that the firm has no partisan interest in the outcome of the election which is left for the people of Nigeria to decide.
The company said it decided to conduct the survey because of the general global interest the Nigeria election has generated. “Many people around the world, including political leaders and investors are focusing on Nigeria to see how the process of democracy is managed,” he stated.
He said:“We randomly conducted a nationwide opinion poll focusing on the six geo-political regions of Nigeria: North-East, North-West, North-Central, South-West, South-East and South-South. The sampled population were asked three questions centred on human rights, the economy and security.
“One of the questions stated that between Major-General Buhari and President Jonathan, who would best protect the fundamental human rights of Nigerians? While APC’s Buhari scored 30%, President Jonathan scored 70%”.
The firm noted that the electoral map tilted more favourable towards President Jonathan in the South-West and middle belt, adding to his advantage in Niger Delta and South-East while Buhari did well in core north where he has large followership.
“Another question stated that between the elections holding in February 14 as previously scheduled and March 28 as postponed, which date do you feel safer to participate in the presidential election? Thirty-five per cent thinks the election should have been held on February 14 as scheduled while 65% thinks the March 28 new date is a safer and more secured. They believe INEC is now more prepared having issued more PVCs and as wells as tested the card readers.
On the question bothering on who would best grow the economy, while APC presidential candidate scored 42%, the PDP presidential candidate scored 58%.
The company said though the Buhari’s public relations team has done a tremendous job in repackaging him yet an overwhelming majority of Nigerians still view him as a divisive character.
“Majority of the population agrees that President Jonathan is tolerant and has the best temperament as a democratic president. They cited the signing of the Freedom of Information Bill by the president and his high tolerant of criticism as a rare quality for an African leader. Many, however, criticized President Jonathan’s public relations team for not doing enough to market his achievements which they said surpassed that of any former leader in recent history.
“We viewed Goodluck Jonathan as a favourite to win re-election based also on a number of factors even though the election will still be difficult to call. Our expectation of a Jonathan’s win was predicated on other several factors, chiefly, is the postponement of the election which has helped him comeback decisively into the race.
“The tepid supports of northern members of PDP seem to have ebbed. Many of his supporters, especially in the North, now feel safer to openly campaign for his victory. Governors Lamido and Babangida Aliyu are now vocally leading the campaign while the vice president is making major inroads in the North-East and North-West. The incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling PDP will still help Jonathan and the PDP.
“The electoral map, from indications, favours Jonathan. The support of Christian-majority and heavily populated South-West around Lagos backed by the Yoruba elders, traditional rulers and the youthful Odua Peoples Congress could be the decisive demographic factors in the election in the South-West.
“Jonathan won the South-West and middle belt handily in 2011. He has again reached out to the South western Yoruba community and brought them into the upper ranks of his campaign and potential administration, in a fence-mending political alliance. In contrast, Buhari and the APC appear to be now struggling in the South- West which hitherto would have been her turf.
“In addition, the APC has suffered more defections during the last few weeks suggesting a weakened coalition, hence the prospects of victory for PDP. The exit of inside detractors within the PDP like former President Obasanjo has enabled the party in the South-West to refocus and become more united.”
Despite the global fall in the oil price and devaluation of the naira, the firm said food prices had remained stable, an indication of the success of Jonathan’s diversification of the economy into Agriculture.
The firm also noted that the military had made significant gains against Boko-Haram in the North-West, thus bolstering President Jonathan’s image. The exoneration of the oil revenue management by the PWC audit has also put a lie to APC’s propaganda.
“The PDP is starting to look strong while Jonathan’s management of the economy is being better understood and appreciated. A Jonathan’s win will see a continuation of his transformation agenda in the economy and all other sectors which has witnessed significant improvement under his watch.
“A win for PDP will bolster investors’ confidence in the economy and sustain Nigerians position as and the largest economy in Africa. It is expected that Jonathan will implement the National Confab report which cardinal points are the main causes of friction in Nigeria. His win will also help restore stability in the volatile Niger Delta region where militants has threatened to disrupt oil production and exploration should Jonathan be unfairly forced out of office,” the firm noted.
Source: Nigerian Tribune