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Democracy is a game of number, that number needed to win power. The best candidates do not win all the time, in fact, they rarely win in democracy! To win, you must master the game, recognize human biases and capitalize on it. However, democracy is considered the best form of government despite its several imperfections. The presidential election of 2000 in the United States, world’s oldest functional democracy provides a glimpse into this form of government called democracy.
Bill Clinton’s presidency in the 90s brought about the longest economic expansion in American history, more than 22 million new jobs were created in a country where unemployment rate has always been relatively low. Despite the numerous positive achievements of Clinton’s government, he could not successfully pass on the presidency to his deputy, Al Gore in an election that followed the expiration of his two-term limit. Republican candidate, George W. Bush won that keenly contested election in what could be termed a clear rejection of Clinton’s Democratic Party by American voters. There were two clear choices before the American people in that election; continuation of Clinton’s economic model or an experimentation with a new set of ideas George Bush was bringing to the table. Americans chose Bush. Mr. Bush was re-elected for a 2nd term despite his foreign policy’s somersaults and largely bland economic record. In retrospect, American voters probably went the wrong way but democracy has spoken.
The result of the just concluded presidential election in Nigeria has left many wondering and confused. To many young Nigerians who zealously and tenaciously labored online and trouped out to vote in, a supposedly new Nigeria led by their much beloved Peter Obi, the answer is far-fetched. There is an obvious disappointment and sense of dejection occasioned by the result of this election as declared by Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). It is not an understatement to say many are going through a period of agony, soul searching and bewilderment. Like previous presidential elections in Nigeria, the result of this election will remain controversial and may never be accepted by the opposition parties.
Reflecting on our democratic journey, a parallel can be drawn between 2023 and 1979 presidential elections. I have heard many pundits referring to 2023 election as the most competitive election in Nigerian history, but whether this assertion is rooted in facts is out there for scrutiny. For the purpose of clarity, I will attempt the comparison. In 1979, there were nineteen states in Nigeria. Five political parties were registered by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO) led by Michael Ani; Great Nigerian People’s Party (GNPP), National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Nigerian People’s party (NPP), People’s Redemption Party (PRP) and Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN). State by state results of 1979 Presidential election as declared by FEDECO is summarized below:
1. NPN – 7 states (Bauchi, Benue, Kwara, Niger, Sokoto, Rivers and Cross Rivers)
2. UPN – 5 states (Bendel, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo and Oyo)
3 .NPP – 3 states (Anambra, Imo and Plateau)
4. GNPP – 2 states (Borno and Gongola)
5. PRP – 2 states (Kano and Kaduna)
FEDECO declared NPN winner of that hotly contested election, and it was immediately rejected by major opposition parties. In fact, New York Times of August 20th, 1979 carried a headline about that election; “3 Nigerian Parties Call Results of Election Fraudulent”.
NPN won with 5.7 million votes followed by UPN and NPP with 4.9 million and 2.8 million votes respectively. Legal tussle that followed the declaration of results from that election ended at the Supreme Court in a “famous” 12 2/3 judgement that declared Alhaji Shehu Shagari winner of the election. Fast forward to 2023, Bola Tinubu of APC was declared winner, He won twelve states with 8.8 million votes, followed Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso with 7 million, 6.1 million and 1.5 million votes respectively from twelve states each.
A careful look at both 1979 and 2023 presidential elections would present stack similarities. Unfortunately, after many years of democratic experiments, Nigeria is still much divided along visible fault lines of religion, ethnicity and sphere of influence today as it was in 1979!
As I recall the 1979 presidential election, although it was a distant past, the memory is still fresh in my head, the landmark presidential election of 1979 that launched Nigeria’s second democratic experiment. The epic election paraded Chief Obafemi Awolowo, a politician of no match in the history of Yoruba politics was the candidate of Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN). There were other formidable candidates in that race, the foremost Africanist, Owelle of Onitsha, Dr. Nnamdi Azikwe of NPP, Mallam Aminu Kano of “Talakawa” fame led PRP, Waziri Ibrahim, a Kanuri billionaire was the candidate of GNPP and last but not least by all means and measures, Alhaji Shehu Shagari of NPN. That famous “12 2/3 election” of 1979 was my window to understanding the nitty gritty of Nigerian politics and by extension global democratic features.
To an average person from South West, there wasn’t a way UPN wouldn’t win that election. Chief Obafemi Awolowo, “Awoo” as he was popularly called had a cult followership across the length and breadth of Yorubaland. The larger than life, pictures of great Awoo on the moon and some other extra-terrestrial planes (as we were made to believe) still run through my head till this day. But he lost that election! Could this have really happened? I remembered vividly the night of that election when results started coming in, it was all UPN hitting home with great numbers. We gathered around my family’s 14 inches white and black Sony television box as the sonorous voice of Goke Akinlabi (of blessed memory) anchoring for NTV Ibadan (now NTA), vibrating through the silence of emotion laden night as he announced the results to our wide jubilation. No doubt, Awoo was costing to victory! Sadly, it wasn’t long before we realized that national election in a heterogeneous and socio-culturally diverse countries like Nigeria is not won at a regional level. The reality of political cosmopolitan of Nigeria became so real as results from other parts of the country started rolling in days that followed. Shehu Shagari, a Fulani man from the Northwest of Nigeria had won the election with the victory secured from his political base of Northwest, and added Rivers and Cross Rivers States from the south. The result was contested to the Supreme Court but at the end Shagari’s victory prevailed. Till today, not a few believed that Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s UPN won that election. No matter which side of the divide one belongs, the fact that it takes winning across geopolitical zones to win a presidential election in Nigeria was established. The rest is history.
The lesson of history is that we don’t always learn from history. Successive governments in Nigerian post-independence era have done little to bring its diverse ethnic nationalities together. Sadly, mutual suspicion along religious and ethnic lines continues unabated. Unarguably, the last eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari exacerbated an already bad situation with unprecedented nepotism, bad economic policies and gross indifferent disposition to issues of urgent national attention. Peter Obi and the “Obedient Movement” are product of this deep resentments of political status quo by majority of Nigerians, especially among young urban dwellers. It is an obvious fact that other prevailing factors contributed to the emergence of Peter Obi as a top contender in the 2023 presidential election. The apparent overlook of Southeast geopolitical zone by the two major political parties (APC and PDP) in the selection of their presidential candidates became a bitter pill for the Igbo population in Nigeria. Nigeria has not got a president of Igbo extraction since the return to democratic rule twenty-four years ago. To most Igbos, it is more than just an election. It is about ethnic identity and political relevance in Nigerian geopolitical space. The Muslim/Muslim ticket of APC also brought religion identity to the forefront of political contestation for the first time.
It would amount to a tragic failure of omission if lessons of 2023 presidential election and its attended uproar and rejection are not drawn. Results of the 2023 presidential election once again showed clearly that it is certainly impossible for one geopolitical zone to single handedly deliver a president in a democratic election in Nigeria! This is a validation of pattern shown by the 1979 presidential election result. It is also a pointer to the fact that religion and politics should be kept apart. Although Nigerian population is almost evenly split between Christianity and Islam, most Nigerians seem to look beyond religious differences when it comes to choosing their political office holders.
No matter what the final outcome of this presidential election would be, Nigerians have again shown that whoever that wants to rule them in this democratic dispensation must build alliances across all geopolitical zones. Nigerians are emotional about their religion, but most are not fanatical about it.
As we face uncertainties in the aftermath of 2023 presidential election, we need to exercise patient and caution such that we allow the process of challenging the results in the court of law to sail through. The judiciary must dispense justice without fear or favour The alternative is not in the interest of anyone. What led to the Nigerian civil war is not much different from what we have in our hands today. Millions lost their lives and yet, it did not result in Nigeria of our dream. We can’t afford to allow the lessons of history lost on us again.
Olusegun Oke
[email protected]
Current Affairs commentator, writes from Pennsylvania, USA