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Akinwande Soji-Ojo
As preparations for the 2023 general elections gather pace, presidential candidates from various political parties are trying to shore up their base and break into their opponents stronghold.
Not underestimating the chances of candidats of the various political parties, it appears that three presidential candidates have dominated the political space since they became standard-bearers of their parties.
They are Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP).
In every electoral cycle, presidential candidates take their campaign to every geo-political zone of the country with the intention of getting as many votes as possible across board. Whether in the North or South, the scramble for votes is fierce as the winning candidate must receive a majority of the votes and over 25 per cent of the votes in at least 24 of the 36 states in the country.
In the North, there are three geo-political zones– North West, North Central and North East. With the quantum of total votes from the North, there is always a serious scramble for votes from the zone. In fact, the recently concluded Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) confirmed that North will always be the beautiful bride of politicians in any presidential election.
In the CVR exercise, the North had the highest number of new registrants, 6,359,071, compared with the South, which had 5,939,233 new registrants. In the present voter register, the northern region has a total number of 49.57 million voters, representing almost 50 per cent of voters in the country.
According to the INEC register, the North West zone, which comprises of seven states– Sokoto, Zamfara, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Jigawa, have a total of 22.67 million registered voters; the highest number of registered voters in the country.
As it has always been, the North West will once again contribute significant votes to whoever will emerge as president in 2023, making the region an important battle ground for all candidates.
It is not a coincidence that presidential candidates and their foot soldiers have continued to transverse the region in the past few weeks, apparently in recognition of its electoral value.
In the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections, the North West showed that votes from the zone are critical to whoever will win the election. In both elections President Muhammadu Buhari had the highest votes in the zone. In 2015, Buhari polled 46 per cent of the entire votes cast, and also amassed 39 per cent of the total votes cast in the 2019 election. The number of votes Buhari got from the North West helped him defeat former president Goodluck Jonathan and former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in 2015 and 2019 reapectively.
The ruling APC hopes for similar electoral feat from the zone in 2023. Speaking about the critical nature of the North West, the APC senatorial candidate for Kaduna Central, Muhammad Sani Dattijo, said: “The North West zone is critical to the party’s victory in 2023. So whoever wins in the zone will be the next president.”
APC national vice chairman (North West), Salihu Lukman, re -echoed Dattijo’s sentiment, saying APC was all-out to have the most voting number of the region.
“We will not give a breathing space for other parties to maneuvre in subsequent elections. The North West is for APC,” Lukman said.
The ruling party is determined to amass as much votes as possible in the zone as it had embarked on regular consultations with stakeholders amd supporters in the seven states that make up the region, in order to see how the zonal office and the state chapters can work together. The party has also reached out to aspirants who lost out in the battle for tickets. The zonal office is also consulting widely to promote the Tinubu/Shettima ticket. Also, the APC looks to be in good stead in the zone having produced six out of the seven governors, with only Sokoto State being controlled by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
At various fora, the likes of Governors Nasir El-rufai (Kaduna), Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano), Bello Masari (Katsina), Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), Badaru Abubakar (Jigawa) and Bello Matawalle (Zamfara) have all promised to deliver their states for Tinubu. The governors are also sponsoring different support groups for Tinubu/Shettima.
Though APC appears optimistic of victory, it faces issues of high inflation, insecurity, kidnapping, banditry, cattle rustling and anti-people policies adopted by some of the state governments in the zone
For the PDP and its presidential candidate, Atiku, the task before them is clearly to strategise on how to bounce back to reckoning in the zone. North West was once PDP’s stronghold until 2015 when it was dislodged by the APC. True to the task at hand, several support groups including Atiku Support Organisations, Atiku PDP Ambassadors, Atikulated are all reaching out to people and marketing their presidential candidate in the zone. The party will be banking on its sole governor, Aminu Tamubwal of Sokoto State, its few senators, members of the House of Representatives, members of the Houses of Assembly to woo electorates to vote its presidential candidate. The PDP still boasts of being a formidable force in the zone, having produced past national party leaders, former ministers, former senators, ambassadors and elders.
The PDP is trying to woo voters with the fact that it is out to rescue and relieve Nigerians of the hardship many are currently experiencing. However, there are those who argue that people are yet to forget the past antecedents of the party which theybdescribe as negative in its impact on the people. To this end, some pundits are skeptical about whether the party can be entrusted with power again.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party and its presidential candidate, Obi, are still trying to find their footing in the zone. The party is not too popular In the zone.However, the party is gaining popularity among the youths. No doubt, youths in the North West zone are part of the 71 per cent that just registered to collect their voter card. Relying on the huge number of youth voters, the Labour Party may pull off some surprises.
But it is worthy to note that concerted efforts by few elites to push for Obi’s candidature have been futile. The spokes person of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has openly declared his support for the Labour Party and Obi’s candidature. Some Nigerians, however, argued that he is doing so because of his younger brother, who is the vice presidential candidate of the party, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed.